How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence

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The book leaps beyond sharing his extensive expertise and provides a compelling examination of today’s tenuous, often unpredictable landscape. In summary, ‘How Spies Think’ offers decision-making advice for senior leaders, a fascinating and timely examination of cognitive biases and a useful guide to making strategic partnerships that last. As a securocrat, it makes sense for him to primarily be occupied with the downsides of the digitalisation of our lives.

Importantly also, what our leaders have to contend with - too often criticised and subject to protest by those holding an incomplete picture. Omand weet dus waar hij het over heeft, kan putten uit een rijke ervaring en beschikt over een scherpe, analytische geest. Het sociologische perspectief op internationale inlichtingensamenwerking is tot dusver in de wetenschap onderbelicht gebleven. Full of revealing examples from his storied career, including key briefings with Prime Ministers from Thatcher to Blair, and conflicts from the Falklands to Afghanistan, Professor Omand arms us with the tools to sort fact from fiction, and shows us how to use real intelligence every day.Ja na pewno potrzebuję przemyślenia, przeanalizowania i poukładania ogromu informacji i dostosowania ich do swoich potrzeb. A highlight of the book, though, is all the "war stories" the author tells from his decades of service in the UK intelligence and defense communities.

And perhaps it's a little odd that Professor Omand does not take the trouble to list the several failures of the JIC over the years, regardless of his beautiful formula: p(N)/E=p(N. Other mistakes include assuming your opponent will treat facts the same way as you (mirror imaging) or assess situations like you (transferred judgement).Instead, the work comes across more like a professional autobiography (of course of an individual who has reached the pinnacle within his industry). Het stelsel van dekkingsgraden dat de Nederlandse inlichtingen- en veiligheidsdiensten hanteren, is met dit model grotendeels in overeenstemming. Ormand then creates examples of using the analytical approach by applying the tools to world events and explains how the internet has made it easier for some to subvert arguments based upon structure, method and logic. The Bayesian method of reasoning therefore involves adjusting our prior degree of belief in a hypothesis on receipt to form a posterior degree of belief in it.